race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 6: St. Paul's takes the Princess Elizabeth — and ends the season as the model's number one

St. Paul's won the Princess Elizabeth Challenge Cup on Sunday afternoon, beating St. Edward's by two-thirds of a length in 6:20. Five races, five wins, never headed. They finish the season as the…

Aug 11, 2026·Read full analysis →
race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 4: St. Edward's beats the model again, and the semi-final the draw promised is set

Eight crews were left in the Princess Elizabeth on Friday and four are left tonight, which is the least interesting thing that happened. The interesting thing is that St. Edward's — the lowest-rated…

race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 5: St. Paul's edges Radley, St. Edward's beats the model a third time, and the Final is set

The model went nought from two on Saturday. That is the whole day in a sentence, and it is not the disaster it sounds like, because the two misses are opposite in kind: one was a race it never…

race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 2: Kings College sends the last American home, and Radley and St. Paul's pull clear

Sixteen crews went afloat for the Round of 16 on Wednesday, and the story of the day was the boat that didn't come back. Kings College beat Deerfield by two and a quarter lengths, and with that the…

race-recap

Henley 2026, Day 1: The favourites hold the Princess Elizabeth, and Deerfield is the last American standing

Thirty-two crews went afloat for the Princess Elizabeth Challenge Cup on Tuesday, and sixteen came back to the Stewards' Enclosure still alive. That is the arithmetic of a Round of 32. The more…

rankings

The British rankings, and a preview of National Schools'

The course at the National Water Sports Centre is a 2,000-metre straight cut by a forest on one side and a grandstand on the other, six lanes wide and pointed almost due south. Two and a half…

Upcoming
Head of the Lake
Nov 1
Philadelphia Frostbite Regatta
Nov 7
San Diego Fall Classic
Nov 8
All regattas
Recent ResultsAll regattas →
W 2V8+Nov 1
Mercer Fall Classic
Results pending
W 2V8+Nov 1
Mercer Fall Classic
Results pending
M 2V8+Nov 1
Mercer Fall Classic
Results pending
M 2V8+Nov 1
Mercer Fall Classic
Results pending
W V8+Nov 1
Head of the Occoquan
1TBC Racing18:07.388
2Jackson-Reed18:17.866
3Whitman18:46.517
4TBC Racing18:55.349
5Resilient RC18:59.761
W V8+Nov 1
Mercer Fall Classic
1Mount Saint Joseph16:19.367
2Greenwich16:21.569
3Whitemarsh Boat Club16:28.557
4Greenwich16:49.606
5PNRA/Mercer16:52.022
W V8+Nov 1
Mercer Fall Classic
1Mount Saint Joseph6:58.061
2Greenwich7:00.278
3Whitemarsh Boat Club7:08.110
4PNRA/Mercer7:14.765
5Greenwich7:15.659
M V8+Nov 1
Head of the Occoquan
1Whitman16:00.484
2Gonzaga16:23.543
3TBC Racing16:39.472
4Resilient RC16:50.769
5Annapolis Junior16:59.053
How RPI Works

Each rating comes with a range showing how sure the model is. Every race updates all of them.

The Algorithm

1
Each rating is a best guess with a range
Each crew has a most-likely speed and a 90% credible interval around it. Crews that race often have narrow ranges. New crews start wide.
Whitman 2068 · 90% CI 2020–2117
2
Win chances come from comparing two crews
We compare the two crews' full posterior distributions. Curves far apart mean a confident pick. Overlapping curves mean a coin flip.
Whitman 2068 vs Gonzaga 1814
Predicted: 100% chance for Whitman
Margin: +14.4 to +26.2 sec (90% interval at 2000m)
Posterior comparison
GonzagaWhitman>99% Whitman wins
3
Every race updates every rating
The model rates all crews together (hierarchical pooling), so one result moves more than the two crews in it. Beating a crew from a strong league counts for more, and league strength is learned from the races too.
One race result → every team's posterior shifts
League strengths update with team ratings
No K-factor: the data sets how far a rating moves

Accuracy & Calibration

74%
Calls correct
13,000+
H2H pairs tested
PredictedActual win rate
50–55%
56%
55–60%
60%
60–65%
67%
65–70%
71%
70–80%
79%
80–90%
87%
90–100%
94%
When the model says X%, the favorite wins about X% of the time.
Each race is scored with the ratings from before it was rowed.